If you pay attention to financial news, you are probably seeing a lot of discussion about inflation, which has reared its head in the U.S. economy after being mostly dormant for the last decade. In May 2021, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), often called headline inflation, rose at an annual rate…
In March 2021, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.6%, the largest one-month increase since August 2012. Over the previous 12 months, the increase was 2.6%, the highest year-over-year inflation rate since August 2018. (By contrast, inflation in 2020 was just 1.4%.)1 The annual increase in CPI-U — often called headline…
On August 18, 2020, the S&P 500 set a record high for the first time since COVID-19 ushered in a bear market on February 19. The cycle from peak to peak was just 126 trading days, the fastest recovery in the history of the index, erasing losses from an equally historic plunge of almost 34%…
Are the financial markets (‘Wall Street’) and the real economy (‘Main Street’) disconnected? Although they may appear to be disconnected on the surface, and near-term outcomes are impossible to predict, they’re likely no more disconnected than usual. One of the more important considerations to keep in mind about financial markets is that they’ve always…
When it comes to your finances, “go with your gut” might not be the wisest adage to follow. In fact, it may work against you, particularly in periods of market turbulence. Before jumping to conclusions about your finances, consider what biases may be at work beneath your conscious radar. Recency bias refers to the tendency…
On April 20, 2020, the price of a futures contract for West Texas Intermediate crude — the benchmark for U.S. oil prices — fell below zero for the first time in history, dropping more than 306% in trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and ending the day at -$37.63 per barrel.1 Essentially, this meant…
Again, as expected, the FOMC kept the fed funds interest rate steady at a lower-band target of 0.00-0.25%. Without dipping into the unchartered and controversial waters of negative rates, this is as far as they can go. The formal statement remained bleak in tone, with an outlook for growth extremely challenged due to COVID-19,…
This is never simple to evaluate, as current prices for rates and risk assets have a behavioral component, and appropriate price levels may only be obvious in hindsight. In past cycles, equity bear markets and subsequent recoveries have unfolded over months, not weeks. This more recent volatility event was different on that front. Compared to…
Dear Clients, Monday brought another volatile day of market activity and we know that – even if we haven’t heard from you – you may be experiencing some anxiety. While you’re probably receiving a message from every email list you’ve ever been a part of on what they’re doing with regards to COVID-19, we…
Why has the Fed reacted so dramatically? Why has the market reacted the way it has to Fed actions? In short, it’s about messaging and credit markets. While lowering interest rates by a percent to zero at this stage may not make a marginal difference to consumer and corporate borrowers on a day-to-day level, it…