Is This Bull Timid or Ready to Charge?

On June 8, 2023, the S&P 500 index closed at 4,293.93, just over 20% higher than its lowest recent closing value of 3,577.03 reached on October 12, 2022.1 According to a common definition of market cycles, this indicated that the benchmark index was officially in a bull market after a bear market that began in…

Is the Yield Curve Signaling a Recession?

Long-term bonds generally provide higher yields than short-term bonds, because investors demand higher returns to compensate for the risk of lending money over a longer period. Occasionally, however, this relationship flips, and investors are willing to accept lower yields in return for the relative safety of longer-term bonds. This is called a yield curve inversion,…

Tech Sector Turmoil and the Bear Market

Tech Sector Turmoil and the Bear Market

During the intensely volatile first 100 trading days of 2022, the stocks of companies in the S&P 500 index delivered their worst performance since 1970.1 The S&P 500 continued to tumble, and the benchmark index descended into a bear market — typically defined as a sustained drop in stock prices of at least 20% —…

Managing Bond Risks When Interest Rates Rise

After dropping the benchmark federal funds rate to a rock-bottom range of 0%–0.25% early in the pandemic, the Federal Open Market Committee has begun raising the rate toward more typical historical levels in response to high inflation. At its March 2022 meeting, the Committee raised the funds rate to 0.25%–0.50% and projected the equivalent of…