oil prices

Geopolitical Tensions, Oil Prices and The Economy

Conflict in the Persian Gulf has spurred modest oil price volatility in recent weeks, but prices didn’t spike to high levels seen during some past conflicts. That’s partly because rising U.S. oil production has shaken up the global oil market since 2010. Crude oil prices still react to geopolitical events and other unplanned supply disruptions.…

interest rate cut

June 2019 Fed Meeting | Key Takeaways

Following their June meeting yesterday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) made no change to the 2.25-2.50% range for the fed funds rate. However, member appeared split on the outlook, with one member voting for a cut today, while others expect cuts towards the end of the year. This does seem to raise the probability…

trade tariffs

Trade Tariffs and US Markets

It may not be as dramatic as laid out in several worst-case scenarios, but intensification of tensions doesn’t appear to be a positive. (On a historical basis generally, restricting trade typically doesn’t enhance prospects for either side, long-term.) While the U.S. feels that taking a stand against trade infractions (mostly on the intellectual property side)…

the h group salem

May 2019 Fed Meeting

As predicted, yesterday’s FOMC meeting ended with no change in policy, with all members on board with keeping the fed funds rate within a range of 2.25-2.50%. The formal statement was very little changed, noting continued strength in the labor market and economic growth; however, household and business spending were noted as slowing in the…