interest rate cut

June 2019 Fed Meeting | Key Takeaways

Following their June meeting yesterday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) made no change to the 2.25-2.50% range for the fed funds rate. However, member appeared split on the outlook, with one member voting for a cut today, while others expect cuts towards the end of the year. This does seem to raise the probability…

trade tariffs

Trade Tariffs and US Markets

It may not be as dramatic as laid out in several worst-case scenarios, but intensification of tensions doesn’t appear to be a positive. (On a historical basis generally, restricting trade typically doesn’t enhance prospects for either side, long-term.) While the U.S. feels that taking a stand against trade infractions (mostly on the intellectual property side)…

the h group salem

May 2019 Fed Meeting

As predicted, yesterday’s FOMC meeting ended with no change in policy, with all members on board with keeping the fed funds rate within a range of 2.25-2.50%. The formal statement was very little changed, noting continued strength in the labor market and economic growth; however, household and business spending were noted as slowing in the…

fed note

March 2019 Fed Note

The March FOMC meeting ended as many predicted—with no change to the fed funds rate, which is currently set at 2.25-2.50%. Regardless, the meeting was closely watched in terms of how the Fed planned to communicate a stance on policy for the remainder of 2019. The formal statement noted a slowing in economic growth from…

interest rates

No Interest Rate Changes This Month

The FOMC unanimously decided on no policy action upon the conclusion of their January meeting, which was as expected. The formal statement noted continued strength in the labor market and economic activity rising at a ‘solid’ rate (downgraded from December’s ‘strong’).  While household spending has continued to grow, a slowdown in business fixed investment last…

interest rate increase

Interest Rates Up Another 0.25%

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee raised the fed funds target rate by 0.25% to a new level of 2.25-2.50%.  This was widely anticipated, with a high futures market probability of this outcome beforehand.  There were no committee dissents. The formal statement was little altered from November, noting that economic activity remains strong, unemployment remained…