Team Update | Q3 2018
Once a quarter, we take a few minutes to update you on what’s going on with our team. Here’s what has been happening in our world(s). Over the summer, Michelle spent a lot of time near or on the water: staying…
Fall Market Volatility
The current pull back in the stock market once again gives us an opportunity to remind everyone just how normal and frequent these events are. Since the end of September, the S&P 500 is down about 6.4% and the broader…
What is the Yield Curve?
The last few days of market turmoil may have you wondering, is a recession coming? One of many indicators that economists are watching is the yield curve. But what does it tell us? What is the yield curve? The yield curve…
Center for Hope and Safety | Steps to Safety 2018
Over the weekend, Brenna and I spent a part of our morning taking “Steps to Safety.” This was the name of the walk/run event hosted by the Center for Hope and Safety on Saturday morning. Part fundraiser, part awareness-builder, part health-and-wellness focuser, the Steps to…
2018 Third Quarter Market Commentary
We don’t know about you, but there are days when we envision getting far away from the news and the disquieting things we hear each day. Fortunately, and we’ve mentioned this before, the economy and the various capital markets don’t…
Medicare Open Enrollment Begins October 15
What is the Medicare Open Enrollment Period? The Medicare Open Enrollment Period is the time during which people with Medicare can make new choices and pick plans that work best for them. Each year, Medicare plan costs and coverage typically…
Interest Rates Increased Today
The FOMC decided to raise short-term interest rates by another quarter-percent—the third hike this year—bringing the fed funds target range to 2.00-2.25%. This was largely as expected, with formal probabilities of such a move being pegged at around 95% based…
NEDCO | Financial Foundations
Last week, I enjoyed leading a class for the Neighborhood Economic Development Corporation (NEDCO) and their Financial Foundation course. For more than 35 years, NEDCO has been building opportunities in our community. By supporting financial stability and responsible homeownership, providing…
5 Tips for Couples Approaching Retirement
When it comes to retirement, the most common concern we hear from our client couples isn’t usually related to their finances. It’s personal. Among the top for many long term couples? “How are my partner and I going to handle…
Should I Freeze My Child’s Credit
As of today, fees previously associated with a credit freeze have disappeared. This has renewed the conversation around placing a credit freeze and identity protection. Last fall in the wake of the Equifax data breach, we shared strategies for adults to protect…
Champions for Children 2018
It was our pleasure to serve as table captains at today’s Champions for Children luncheon. Liberty House Child Abuse Assessment Center holds this fundraising luncheon every fall in an effort to spread the word about the vital services they provide…
The Rise and Fall of Bitcoin
On December 18, 2017, our office posted an article titled, “What to Make of the Rise in Bitcoin and Other Cryptocurrencies?” On the previous day, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of nearly $20,000 – a price it has not seen…
Nazrudin 2018
Lifelong learners make the best financial planners. It’s a vital part of what makes us not only a knowledgeable resource, but a trustworthy partner for our clients. Every fall, a handful of these financial planners attend a unique retreat. Where thought…
Is Trouble Brewing in Emerging Markets (Again)?
Emerging markets have long been characterized by unique, idiosyncratic factors and higher volatility, especially compared to more established markets such as the U.S., Europe and Japan. This is true despite an expansion of opportunities and greater investor acceptance of these…
Why Should I Care About the Federal Budget Deficit?
According to the most recent Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projection, the federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2018 (which ends on September 30) will reach $793 billion, or 3.9% of gross domestic product (GDP). This figure is $230 billion larger…
Who Should Own the 529 Plan?
It’s no secret that a 529 plan offers tax advantaged growth for college expenses like tuition, books, supplies, etc. What isn’t as clear is who should own the account? The parent or the grandparent? As CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNERS™, we get…
Should I Delay My First Required Minimum Distribution?
As many of our client families approach age 70½, they begin to consider the impact their required minimum distribution will have on their income and tax liability. A common question that crosses their minds: Should I consider delaying my first required…
What is the current level of recession risk?
What is the current level of recession risk? It’s always prudent to ask these questions when conditions are benign, since that’s when the downside of the current good times is usually the most ignored. It seems everyone in the world…
Women’s Worth | October Financial and Estate Planning Seminar
For the past two years, I’ve had the great pleasure of teaming up with Willamette Valley Hospice and Collier Law. Together, we’ve brought the opportunity for knowledge and empowerment to women in our community. The last several seminars have been such a great success,…
Tour at Oregon State Hospital
Last spring, my wife Laurie and I bid on an auction item at the Rotary Club of Salem dinner and auction. The package included and a private tour of the Oregon State Hospital Museum of Mental Health. We decided to take our team, and…
Why Does it Cost More to Fill Your Tank?
The Memorial Day weekend is usually the beginning of the summer driving season, and — not coincidentally — often a high point in the annual ups and downs of gas prices. This year, almost 37 million drivers hit the road…
What’s the latest on Social Security and Medicare Solvency?
Most Americans will receive Social Security and Medicare benefits at some point in their lives. For this reason, workers and retirees are concerned about potential program shortfalls that could affect future benefits. Each year, the Trustees of the Social Security…
Today’s Fed Meeting: No Changes to Interest Rates
The FOMC concluded their monetary policy meeting today, which, as expected, resulted in no change to the fed funds rate—currently targeted to a range of 1.75-2.00%. There were no dissenting votes. The formal narrative again was positive in its assessment…
Are the GDP and Stock Market Correlated?
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report came out last week and showed that the economy grew at a rate of 4.1% last quarter; the highest growth rate in the last 4 years. A common question we get from our clients…
Student Loan Interest Rates Going Up
Do you have a student loan (or two)? Interest rates on federal student loans are set to rise for the second year in a row. This table shows the interest rates for new loans made on or after July 1,…
Q2 2018 | Team Update
Once a quarter, we like to give a team update to let you know what’s going on in our lives both personally and professionally. Here’s what the second quarter of 2018 looked like for us. Taking advantage of all the sunshine we have…
Marion Polk Food Share | Farm to Table
Did you know that one of five people in our community go to bed hungry every night? Marion Polk Food Share is working hard to change that. Their programs range from emergency food supply, managing Meals on Wheels, coordinating incredibly fertile community gardens and…
Q2 2018 | Economic Outlook & Portfolio Overview
Happy summer! The second quarter of this year brought with it some more of the volatility we experienced in Q1. While the market movements weren’t as wide as the first quarter, political rhetoric and interest rate changes continued to keep…
What has happened to productivity?
Productivity continues to be a debated topic, and the subject of both academic and more practical white papers, with no clear-cut conclusion reached, although hopes and expectations for improvement from current low levels are widespread. A recent report by consultant…
Draft 2018 1040 Form
Prior to our client meetings, we send out a brief questionnaire to understand what we can prepare in advance to assure our time together is valuable. In a recent questionnaire, a client asked a great question, “How will the latest tax reform…
Quarterly Commentary | Q2 2018 | Trade Tariffs
Talk About Trade The majority of the market questions we’ve received over the last three months have been on trade. The back and forth between the White House and China (and most recently, Canada and Mexico) have some of you…
Free Workshop for Trustees
In working with their estate planning attorney, many of our clients choose to name a child or other family member as their successor trustee. In most cases, that individual has little to no experience serving in this important capacity. Here’s…
Ways (and Why) to Grow a Roth IRA
You know how when you buy a new car, you suddenly see ‘your’ car everywhere, though you never really noticed it before? That’s what’s been happening with me and the Roth IRA lately. They’ve been around for over 20 years but…
Interest Rates Tick Upward Once Again
The June FOMC meeting concluded with members deciding to raise the fed funds target rate by 0.25%, for the seventh time this cycle, to a new range of 1.75-2.00%. As the probability of this happening was over 95%, in light…
Financial Advice for College Graduates, Part III: Negotiating a Job Offer
Dear Graduates, As you make your way into the workforce, you might feel eager to take on the first job offer that comes your way. But I encourage you to proceed with thought, caution and with the best interests of…
Financial Advice for College Graduates, Part II: Debt Management
Dear College Graduates, Most of you will walk away from your education with more than a diploma. Around 68% of you graduating with a bachelor’s degree are carrying $30,000 in student loan debt. For graduate students, that number is closer to…
Financial Advice for College Graduates, Part I: Investing
Dear College Graduates, This will not be like other advice columns. I won’t condescend, nag, or remind you about irritating millennial or Gen Z stereotypes that you’ve been working to overcome. My goal in this three part series is just to…
Are we in for another round of high oil prices?
Oil prices have a stealthy way of luring investors into the complacency of a trading range, before taking a dramatic turn on the cusp of a single geopolitical factor (often in the Middle East) or variety of coinciding factors. With…
When to Worry About a Recession?
Last week, I sat down with one of my long time clients. She and I were discussing the volatile stock market as of late, and I was sharing with her that corrections and pullbacks are a part of a normal,…
The Fed Makes No Change to Interest Rates This Month
The Fed met today and ended their meeting with a unanimous vote of no action on the interest rate front, as predicted, with the fed funds rate target remaining at 1.50-1.75%. The formal statement showed little change from the March edition,…
New Medicare Cards Are Coming
If you receive Medicare, you will be getting a new Medicare card in the mail. To help prevent fraud and fight identity theft, Medicare is removing Social Security Numbers from Medicare cards. Your new card will have a new Medicare…
Women’s Worth | Financial & Estate Planning Seminar
The first 80 degree day of 2018 and there were still over 50 women who came to learn what they can do to improve their financial and estate plans. This is the second time we’ve co-hosted and co-sponsored this unique event.…
What is the Difference Between Small-cap, Mid-cap and Large-cap?
There are financial terms that, as advisors, we often use as if they are a part of everyday conversation. Some clients will get a bit giddy when we use terms like asset allocation, beta, correlation, and diversification. The other 95%…
Inspired by the Boys and Girls Club
Yesterday, while the rest of the staff was busy working, I had the opportunity to attend the annual luncheon supporting the Boys and Girls Club of Salem, Marion and Polk Counties. While I’ve had a long connection the Boys and Girls…
How Meaningful Are These Ongoing Threats of Tariffs?
Market volatility has obviously been ramping up as of late, with one of the catalysts being the announcement of various layers of tariffs by the U.S. administration. This rhetoric has been targeted at China, which has responded with a series…
Empowering the Relationship Between Women and Finances
Women are powerful. They represent the primary breadwinner in 44% of U.S. households and manage over $14 trillion (51%) of wealth today.[1] Even with that kind of influence, the relationship between women and finances isn’t always an empowered one. Only…
Q1 2018 | Team Update
Once a quarter, we like to give a team update to let you know what’s going on in our lives both personally and professionally. Here’s what the first quarter of 2018 looked like for us. Last month, Michelle wrapped up the extensive volunteer…
Quarterly Commentary | Q1 2018 | The Fed, Market Volatility and More
We’ve spent the last 6-12 months telling you to anticipate an increase in market volatility. We have a feeling many of you were recalling those conversations as you rode through the market volatility of the last quarter. For the first time…
Celebrating Spring
On St. Patrick’s Day, we were thrilled to join about 2 dozen other sponsors who gathered to support Liberty House. Their annual Celebrate Spring dinner and auction raises funds to support the important work this organization does. Liberty House is…
Volatility Returns – Part II
Markets were in the news again, with media headlines implying panic selling, akin to what we saw in early February when the market experienced its first correction in years. Headlines especially focus on the drop measured in the number of…
What do bulls and bears have to do with capital markets?
The juxtaposition of a bull and a bear to describe capital markets is thought to have originated in the early 1700’s. Even though several stories exist, there is no definitive answer as to which, if any, is correct. The following…
5 Questions to Test Your Medicare Knowhow
Do you know the difference between Medicare, Medigap and Medicare Advantage? What about supplements A, B, C, D and the rest of the alphabet soup? My parents are approaching Medicare age and late last month, I tagged along to attend…
New Tariffs and Their Potential Impact
At the end of last week, the news was dominated by President Trump’s announcement to implement tariffs on imported steel and aluminum products. This has a lot of us wondering how those tariffs would look in practice. Our on-staff Chartered Financial…
Women of Willamette University
Yesterday, I had the great pleasure of visiting Willamette University. I spoke with a group of brilliant students who were in their third or fourth year. Some of them were looking forward to graduation in June, others were gearing up for…
Client Question: How Should I Finance a Down Payment?
Recently, one of our client families came to us with questions around how best to finance a down payment for their future home. A young couple, their home was perfect back when it was just the two of them. But…
5 (More) Tips to Stay Safe Online
At a recent meeting with one of our long time client families we were asked for some tips on how to best maintain and protect their online profile in this ever changing digital world. “How do we manage all of…
2018 Rotary Auction: Setting the Stage
And a good time was had by all! Last Saturday, our whole team gathered at the Salem Convention Center to support The Salem Rotary Foundation. The annual GoodWorks Auction hosted by our club raises money for the foundation to support local…
Dow Dropped Over 4% – And That’s Okay
For the last several months, the USA Today insert in the local newspaper has had an ever-shrinking, almost non-existent “Money” section. I’d wager to guess that may not be the case in tomorrow’s edition. Today’s news of the Dow Jones…
Janet’s Last Stand
Today, Janet Yellen attended her last meeting of The Fed as chair. As anticipated, it was uneventful with no increase to interest rates for the time being, keeping short-term rates to a targeted range of 1.25-1.50%. New chairperson Jerome Powell…
Paper Files: What to Keep? What to Shred?
As you’re pulling together information to prepare your 2017 tax returns, you might be looking through your paper files wondering, “Do I really need all this?” It’s a good time to revisit the essentials of what you should keep and…
Women’s Worth | Free Financial and Estate Planning Seminar
Our team of financial planners is special. We’re diverse, we’re experienced and we’re of the belief that knowledge is power. Last fall, in partnership with Willamette Valley Hospice and Collier Law, I had the great privilege of speaking to a room full of intelligent women…
Quarterly Commentary and Yearend Review | Q4 2018
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit, sed diam nonummy nibh euismod tincidunt ut laoreet dolore magna aliquam erat volutpat.
Video: When Will the Bull Market End?
The market highs set in 2017 may have you a bit nervous. How much longer can this bull market go? Here’s Larry’s take.
Is Santa Real?
This weekend, I ran into a couple of experienced mom’s who shared some holiday advice. “Whatever you do, do NOT start the Elf on a Shelf thing,” said one. The other added, “OR let grandma set up an expectation for…
The Rise of Cryptocurrencies
Last month, our team of financial advisors wrote about cryptocurrencies and bitcoins. We gave you an overview on the mysterious investment and highlighted some of the dangers. Today, cryptocurrencies are making headlines again. With exponential gains in bitcoins dollar price (currently…
Reflections on a 35-Year Career with Ron Kelemen
Ron Kelemen and his wife and Kathy retired on November 2, after 35+ years in the financial advisory business. Before they got too far down the retirement path, we interviewed Ron about his years in this industry. How did you…
Getting Into the Holiday Spirit
As a member of our Salem community, we are proud to support a number of deserving organizations, several of which come with the gift of beautiful music. If you’re looking for an event to get you and your family into…
Top 5 Ways Tax Reform Will Impact You
Tax reform took a lurch forward over the weekend with both the House and Senate passing different versions of the bill. You’ll find a lot of similarities between the two: overall tax rates are lower for individuals and businesses, child…
Finding the Best Way to Give
For some of our client families, this time of year means tax planning. For others, we’re focused on how to help them complete the charitable resolutions they set back in January. In today’s blog post we discuss how to achieve…
Raising a Family of Philanthropists
For those with a charitable heart, they know the secret: that the very act of giving makes us happier. They want share that secret with everyone, especially their families. No matter what your family looks like, you can instill values that will…
Inside the Federal Reserve Board
The Federal Reserve Board can seem mysterious. With signs of the stimulus program unwinding and the recent nomination of Jerome Powell to replace Janet Yellen next year as chair of the board, there’s renewed interest in unpacking this opaque government…
Happy Trails, Ron and Kathy
For over 35 years, Ron and Kathy Kelemen have worked in the financial advisory business. Last Thursday marked their final day of work as they join several of our client families in retirement. Check out this fun, surprise video our…
Bitcoins: Should You Use or Invest in Them?
As fee-only-Certified Financial Planners, clients often ask us our opinion about various investments. It seems like we get this question every time there is a new investment fad or a new IPO offering. Because we are investment fiduciaries, we always…
What Biases Affect Your Financial Decisions?
What biases affect your financial decisions? Now that Richard Thaler has won the Nobel Prize in economics for his groundbreaking research in the field of behavioral finance, perhaps we’ll all be more aware of our often-flawed decision making. Dr. Thaler…
Memories and Lessons from the October 1987 Stock Market Crash
With the Dow at over a record 23,000, we just passed the 28th anniversary of the October 19, 1987 stock market crash, in which the Dow fell 508 points, or 22.6% in one day. That would be the equivalent of…
1986 + 32 = Tax Reform in 2018?
As fee-only financial advisors, the fall often means some hands on year-end tax planning for our clients. Couple that with recommendations of early filing in the wake of the Equifax data breach and news of a tax reform proposal, and…
Quarterly Commentary | Q3 2017
The long‐awaited fall is finally upon us. We are pleased to present our review of the third quarter of 2017. Once again, it’s been a good quarter for stocks, except for some rough patches during August. The past 12 months…
Identity Crisis
If you’ve spent the month of September evaluating your online presence and security measures, you’re not alone. The Equifax data breach has served as an unfortunate reminder of just how public our “private” information is. This breach has also rekindled…
More Tips for Identity Safety
Another week has passed since we’ve checked in with you on the Equifax data breach. We hope by now that most of you are starting to feel better about the identity safety measures you have put in place. Aside from the…
Are You Eligible for Student Loan Forgiveness?
Our clients often express concern about the debt that they, their kids or their grandkids are saddled with straight out of college. In the last several years, news about the possibility of student loan forgiveness has surfaced. If ever there…