As predicted, yesterday’s FOMC meeting ended with no change in policy, with all members on board with keeping the fed funds rate within a range of 2.25-2.50%. The formal statement was very little changed, noting continued strength in the labor market and economic growth; however, household and business spending were noted as slowing in the…
At its meeting on March 20, 2019, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained the benchmark federal funds rate at the target range of 2.25% to 2.50% that was set in December 2018. This in itself was not surprising. But other communications signaled a definite hiatus in the Fed’s policy of raising interest rates and…
What a difference a few months can bring. The fourth quarter of last year was sure a tough one, with uncertainty and general angst pushing prices down significantly. The first quarter of 2019 was quite the opposite. Such is the topsy-turvy world of capital markets and the investment risk that goes along with them. What has…
The March FOMC meeting ended as many predicted—with no change to the fed funds rate, which is currently set at 2.25-2.50%. Regardless, the meeting was closely watched in terms of how the Fed planned to communicate a stance on policy for the remainder of 2019. The formal statement noted a slowing in economic growth from…
Market watchers and strategists are big on anniversaries, so have been acknowledging that about 10 years ago, March 9, 2009, marked the end of the Great Recession bear market and beginning of the bull market run of the past decade. It wasn’t an obvious turn, as sentiment at that time remained quite poor (according to…
Not necessarily in the immediate future—although the probabilities of one have moved higher in recent months—but at some point, yes. Based on a rough survey of indicators put forth by various sources, the odds of one happening in the next year have risen to about one-quarter, with one a few years away are up to…
The FOMC unanimously decided on no policy action upon the conclusion of their January meeting, which was as expected. The formal statement noted continued strength in the labor market and economic activity rising at a ‘solid’ rate (downgraded from December’s ‘strong’). While household spending has continued to grow, a slowdown in business fixed investment last…
In the final quarter of 2018, interest rate and growth fears, along with geopolitical events, sparked volatility in the financial markets and reversed many of the outsize stock gains notched earlier in the year. The S&P 500 posted a loss of about 6.2% for 2018. After falling into bear market territory, defined as a drop…
It is times like these that test the most stalwart of investors. As you have probably noticed this last quarter was tough for investors of all stripes. Despite being a decade old, this has been the most “unloved” bull market ever. The severity of the 2008 recession kept many investors on edge, fearing bad news…
Technically, we are right on the cusp. By definition, a ‘bear market’ in stocks occurs at the point of a -20% price drop from a recent peak—we’re within a percent or two from that threshold. Although this recent movement seems sudden and severe, and is, relative to the last few years of unusually low volatility,…