News

We’ve covered some of the characteristics of cryptos before, but with the ongoing spike in investor interest, the topic is worth revisiting. With any newer and harder-to-understand product, it’s important to take a step back and not lose sight of the forest for the trees.

Treasury rates have ticked higher in recent weeks, due to investor worries about a pickup in inflation. This is not a new concern, but has gained steam as a large ($1.9 tril.) stimulus package appears to be on the verge of passage in Congress, as well as the economy showing signs of broader recovery otherwise, with help from prior stimulus.

We don’t like to spend too much time on market anomalies, let alone individual stocks that fall outside long-term asset allocation principles, but this seems to have taken over the headlines last week. Rarely do stock market quirks become mainstream news; in this case, it carried over to market sentiment to some extent and definitely raised trading volumes.

Each year naturally brings more surprises than certainties, so outlooks and predictions of any kind quickly become futile. (We’ve already experienced a dramatic and unusual first week of January.) At least at this point in time, noted are a few key issues to monitor as 2021 gets going:

The prior weekend, Congress had agreed on a $900+ bil. Covid relief package, approved by both chambers a few days later, and finally signed by the President last night. This had been in the works for months, with a few key sticking points causing the long delay and repeated breakdowns in negotiations between Democrats and Republicans.

It’s a new high, but not dissimilar to celebrating say, 29,999 as a new peak, although the odd number didn’t receive the same level of media attention. These round market levels, whether it be the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq, or others, tend to generate high visibility (especially in the slower post-election news cycle). If an index is old enough, and tends to show positive performance (as stocks have over the long haul), you’ll end up reaching new and higher milestones.

The Oregon Employment Department (OED) has announced that as of November 24th, they have started issuing waiting week payments to eligible Oregonians.

Whether or not an asset class is in a bubble is difficult to answer in real-time, since sentiment can change course as quickly as a few weeks, or take years. In hindsight, these things are always more obvious. The question can be viewed through a few different perspectives:

The election results may have surprised some forecasters (and certainly pollsters), as the predicted ‘blue wave’ of Democrats capturing both the Presidency and Senate fell short. Democrats did retain the House of Representatives, as anticipated, although more seats than expected were lost.

Beginning on November 1, 2020, individuals (including families) may apply for new health insurance, switch to a different health-care plan, or re-enroll in their current plan through a Health Insurance Marketplace under the Affordable Care Act (ACA). The open enrollment period for 2021 health coverage ends on December 15, 2020.

In March 2020, Congress passed the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, which included several provisions designed to help retirement savers cope with the financial fallout from the pandemic. Among these temporary measures were special rules for required minimum distributions, coronavirus-related distributions, and retirement plan loans…

On August 18, 2020, the S&P 500 set a record high for the first time since COVID-19 ushered in a bear market on February 19. The cycle from peak to peak was just 126 trading days, the fastest recovery in the history of the index, erasing losses from an equally historic plunge of almost 34% in February and March.

On August 8, 2020, the president issued an executive order to allow the deferral of certain payroll taxes during the last four months of 2020, and the IRS recently provided related guidance. This has implications for both employers and employees. Here’s a brief summary of the issues.

On Wednesday, September 30th, the Oregon Employment Department will begin issuing Lost Wages Assistance (LWA) payments to qualifying Oregonians who received PUA benefits or self-certified that they received unemployment benefits for COVID-19-related reasons.

What would be the impact of a Trump Presidential reelection for a second term? How important is the President on financial markets anyway? In many ways, policies to expect would likely be similar to what’s in place today, and largely opposite of those proposed under a Biden administration discussed a few weeks ago. At the same time, Trump’s policies have not followed ‘traditional’ Republican ideologies from decades past in a variety of areas. The Senate Republicans have been far more predictable from a policy standpoint, as have the Congressional Democrats.

What causes sudden market declines like we saw this week, seemingly out of nowhere? There often isn’t a concrete reason. It’s important to remember that stocks trade in a market like any other good: when there are more buyers than sellers, prices move higher; when buyers dry up, this can reverse quickly.

What would be the impact of a Biden Presidential election win, potentially including a Democratic takeover of the Senate? The impact of a potential new President on stock market returns is always a key question in the weeks prior to a general election. It’s important to keep in mind that, despite frequent worries around this time of year, and that financial markets may react in the shorter-term term to poll results and election outcomes (especially surprises), the longer-term effects of any administration’s policies appear to be disconnected from financial market results. Instead, stocks especially tend to follow earnings, which follow economic growth trends.

On Friday, July 17th, the Oregon Employment Department launched a new online form for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) initial claims and weekly certifications. We wanted to pass along some additional information regarding the new form, per David Gerstenfeld, Acting Director of the Oregon Employment Department.

In 2019, the Oregon Legislature passed Senate Bill 1049 (SB1049). The bill makes some changes to the Oregon PERS calculations in their quest to help keep the PERS system funded for current and future beneficiaries. While the bill was passed in 2019, components of the bill take effect at various times throughout 2020. For the most part, it is active PERS members who will be impacted by these changes.  It’s important, if you are an active PERS member, to understand how these changes may impact you.

Moments of crisis are times for people to come together and help one another. However, with the rise of record unemployment levels, unemployment fraud has taken hold of vulnerable targets.

Fraudsters and scam artists are always looking for new ways to prey on consumers. Now they are using the same tactics to take advantage of consumers’ heightened financial and health concerns over the coronavirus pandemic.